COVID-19 Discussion and Updates

[DV1]

On 3/29/2020 at 12:24 PM, Bonefreak said:

We are so f^*ked!!!

Guna be a long year to 18 months!!!

If this goes on for a year, or 18 months, the death rate from the shut-down/restrictions will be much higher than from the virus. Crime and violence, murder, domestic violence and suicide will all skyrocket, and unfortunately, if police continue to illegally enter homes without a warrant and try to break up something like a birthday party, many of them will die as well. People are already getting tense and on edge, and in a month all of that is going to  start happening, will not take a year. 

If an executive order is good enough to nullify the 4th Amendment, as many here think it is, why not the 2nd? With no pushback on any of this, the citizens are giving them license to nullify the Bill of Rights, and doing it with surprisingly rapid speed and ease.

This is still America, we do not live in a Dictatorship, even with coronavirus. If we survive the virus with fewer deaths, but also far fewer rights, did we really win? Isn't that the justification... the collective good... that oppressive regimes have used throughout history to strip rights away and suppress their citizens? Just some food for thought. 

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by DV1

[Swamp_Yankee]

2 hours ago, DV1 said:

if police continue to illegally enter homes without a warrant and try to break up something like a birthday party, many of them will die as well.

Thank God you can ignore those pinching a fetid loaf on this thread...

[DV1]

1 hour ago, Swamp_Yankee said:

Thank God you can ignore those pinching a fetid loaf on this thread...

Well, the context of what you quoted was "if this goes on for a year or 18 months". You don't think we will have severe civil unrest by then? I disagree, and I don't even have a hat like that. 

[nickmarch]

3 hours ago, DV1 said:

Since this thread has morphed into what Government can and can't do in a crisis, what are you going to do when Murphy signs an executive order confiscating all household firearms because of the spike in all of the above?

 

3 hours ago, DV1 said:

This is still America, we do not live in a Dictatorship, even with coronavirus. If we survive the virus with fewer deaths, but also far fewer rights, did we really win?

I don't intend to derail this thread.  If anyone is interested in reading the Statutes cited in Murphy's order start a thread and I will post links.

Murphy pretty much has dictator powers now under the order he doesn't need another order to take personal property.

Murphy appoints the FW Council.  I have to assume that they will do as they are told.

I'm not going to answer here start a thread.

[MZ7Extreme]

No lines at Elmhurst medical, brooklyn medical, Lutheran, Methodist or maimonides....

Brooklyn where I am from is supposed to be second to Queens hardest hit....

 

The media is a Joke

[newjerseyhunter]

3 minutes ago, MZ7Extreme said:

No lines at Elmhurst medical, brooklyn medical, Lutheran, Methodist or maimonides....

Brooklyn where I am from is supposed to be second to Queens hardest hit....

 

The media is a Joke

In other news, 222 people died between 4pm Friday and 4pm Saturday... so yeah, I guess no lines is good? I'm not saying you're wrong about the media but I am willing to bet the seasonal flu never killed 200 people in 1 day in any city in the U.S. 

If this trend continues 700-1000 people will be dying every day by next weekend. At that time we can revisit the hard hitting questions like "are there lines outside any of the hospitals in X borough". 

[hunterbob1]

This is serious!.…call my local Chinese guy for pick up,no fra rah,rah sorry we out of stock till further notice.

Edited March 29, 2020 by hunterbob1

[DV1]

44 minutes ago, newjerseyhunter said:

In other news, 222 people died between 4pm Friday and 4pm Saturday... so yeah, I guess no lines is good? I'm not saying you're wrong about the media but I am willing to bet the seasonal flu never killed 200 people in 1 day in any city in the U.S. 

If this trend continues 700-1000 people will be dying every day by next weekend. At that time we can revisit the hard hitting questions like "are there lines outside any of the hospitals in X borough". 

That trend, if it holds, is definitely disturbing. Thankfully, many of the models and trends they had been using are being revised downward, and the experts are now realizing it's not going to be as bad as they had previously said. 

DR. DEBORAH BRIX: I'm sure you have seen the recent report out of the U.K. about them adjusting completely their needs. This is really quite important. If you remember, that was the report that says there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They've adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000. Half a million to 20,000. We are looking at that in great detail to understand that adjustment.

I'm going to say something that is a little bit complicated but do it in a way we can understand it together. In the model, either you have to have a large group of people who a-asymptomatic, who never presented for any test to have the kind of numbers predicted. To get to 60 million people infected, you have to have a large group of a-symptomatics. We have not seen an attack rate over 1 in 1,000. So either we are measuring the iceberg and underneath it, are a large group of people. So we are working hard to get the antibody test and figure out who these people are and do they exist. Or we have the transmission completely wrong.
 

Additionally Dr. Fauci said today it was tough to predict the number of deaths. He said it could be 100,000 or 200,000, but he didn't want to put a number on it because it's hard to hit a moving target. Previously, he said it could be as high as one million deaths or more, now his worst case is 200,000. That is still pretty bad, but they are coming down to reality and off those tremendously overdone predictions.

As for how bad the flu has been (and who even remembers this from just 2 years ago?), from the CDC...

Quote

by early February 2018, the epidemic was widespread and increasing overall. By February 2018, the CDC said that the circulating virus strains included both B strains (Yamagata and Victoria), H1N1 and H3N2.[6] ... that influenza in the United States was killing up to 4,000 Americans a week, likely to far outstrip the rate of deaths in the 2009–2010 season.  In the first week of February, deaths from influenza  were responsible for one of every ten deaths in the US, with 4,064 from pneumonia or influenza recorded in the third week of 2018, according to CDC data. The CDC also reported 63 child deaths at that point, half of which were not considered medically high risk, and only about 20 percent who were vaccinated.

...2018 flu season was severe for all US populations and resulted in an estimated 959,000 hospitalizations and 61,099 deaths.

Imagine if the media was focused on that, and reporting the daily, if not hourly updates of infections, and deaths?  Would we be where we are today?

Edited March 29, 2020 by DV1

[hunterbob1]

No Chinese so went to speedway for chili cheese dogs.Read the first line,due to the,

Edited March 30, 2020 by hunterbob1

[newjerseyhunter]

4 minutes ago, DV1 said:

That trend, if it holds, is definitely disturbing. Thankfully, many of the models and trends they had been using are being revised downward, and the experts are now realizing it's not going to be as bad as they had previously said. 

As for how bad the flu has been (and who even remembers this from just 2 years ago?), from the CDC...

 

 

H3N2 was one of the deadlier strains we have seen because anyone born before 1968(?) had no imprint for it because it was relatively new, ie showed up in HK some time after the 60s? I'm not 100% sure on if I'm recalling all of that correctly but I know I have the gist of it, dates may be off. Even that strain wasn't killing people in the numbers this is killing people. 

My guess is there are two reasons they are changing earlier predictions. 1. political, they are trying to alleviate some of the panic and turmoil. 2. people are locking down, social distancing, etc (albeit to varying degrees) which is something NO ONE does for the seasonal flu.

What do you think NYC would look like right now if we were going about life as normal? If everyone who was WFH was still commuting into city? It would be 10x the shitshow it is now.

[DV1]

2 minutes ago, newjerseyhunter said:

My guess is there are two reasons they are changing earlier predictions. 1. political, they are trying to alleviate some of the panic and turmoil. 2. people are locking down, social distancing, etc (albeit to varying degrees) which is something NO ONE does for the seasonal flu.

I believe the shut down of NYC is going to help, but I don't think you are seeing that yet. Most of the increases last week are from people who contacted it prior to the shutdown. Probably in the next two weeks, you'll get an idea of how much that has curtailed the expansion of the virus. 

I don't think the revision of the models is political at all. I think they were using the worse case scenario as the most likely scenario.  Now that they have seen we are not going to be like Italy (their date rate is 10x ours), and, as Dr. Birx said, the evidence on the ground provides real numbers instead of predicted numbers, they can make more accurate calculations.

I still believe there are many, many more cases that have gone undetected, and the denominator is way higher than they know now. 

[nickmarch]

NY numbers will also go down because so many of them have left NY.  Many are here at the shore. 3 days ago when it was nice out the beach and boardwalk were crowded with out of towners.  NY tags all over the place. My buddy in SC said they are also going there. SC stopped rentals and did other things to keep them out. Florida is also being invaded.  They are spreading covid all over!

[Thats5]

Ww

Edited March 29, 2020 by Thats5

[Thats5]

2 minutes ago, Thats5 said:

Lol.  Not Scary At All?  What kind of a Mess would this be if the country was up and running?

 

[buckhound]

Down here in cape May county tests are taking  5-6 days to come . An older guy (Late 70s)  that hunted with us years ago He and his wife had high fevers last week hers broke but not his  Yesterday he was put on a ventilator. All tests have come back negative now have to wait for CV test to come back..sounds like they are leaning toward CV...