COVID-19 Discussion and Updates

[Swamp_Yankee]

5 minutes ago, Batsto said:

How many dead in Italy? Close to 15,000. Looks like it’s slowing down in Italy. Could NY and NYC lose 15,000 in 2 to 3 more weeks? Maybe? I wonder how the mayor feels about his subway stunt?  

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

About 12,500 in Italy.  Definitely accelerating here-I've been keeping this site open as a tab constantly as I work and yesterday was the fastest I ever saw the death toll rise.  

[megavites]

interesting video on Calif. scientist who's working on antibody solution to the virus...fast forward to min. 13:00

 

[Lunatic]

1 hour ago, Swamp_Yankee said:

The President is saying the low end would be 100K people, so I'm curious how that squares with the "the flu killed 47,000 people last year" crowd at this point.  Not in an I-told-you-so way, but just as a serious question-does this change your thinking at all?  Also, that's just Coronavirus deaths.  I'd be curious to know if there are (or if there will be afterward) statistics on how many people died of other causes (heart attack, stroke, complications of some other disease, accidents such as work related, MVAs, falls, etc...) during this period because ICUs were so overtaxed.  When you look at the statistic of "the flu killed 47,000 people last year," you're looking at flu deaths over about a 6 month period and probably some outliers that die a little earlier or a little later, so it could be as much as 7 or 8 months.  Even going with 6 months, that's a little less than 8,000 deaths per month.  If we lose 100,000 in 3-4 months, or about 25,000 deaths per month that's a huge difference in load on the medical system.  Also, the flu is still killing people as well-its not like the flu took 2020 off and said-"hey you got this Corona-I'm out."  

Put another way, you can fill an 18' above ground swimming pool with a 1" garden hose in about 14 hours.  If you want to fill the same pool in 7 hours  or half the time, you're going to need a hose that can flow  1200 GPM, which means it will need to be four times the diameter of the original hose, ie: more capacity:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-tells-americans-to-prepare-for-a-very-painful-two-weeks-as-white-house-releases-extended-coronavirus-guidelines

 

The 47,000 people dying from flu is the biggest BS on the planet. No actual data exist to support this number, just  statistical modeling. In reality less than 300 death certs are issued in US with the flu as a cause.
Anyway, put aside the number of dying from Covid-19. The problem is, it overwhelms our system like nothing else before and that's the major reason for doing what we are doing. Therefore, thinking the actual death rate shows we overreacted id not a correct conclusion and the way things are shaping our we are not doing enough. (But what would the death rate be if we did not have all these people in hospitals on ventilators? )

Edited April 1, 2020 by Lunatic

[nickmarch]

US Flu Cases Reach 32 Million, Pediatric Hospitalization Rates Hit Record High

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/us-flu-cases-reach-32-million-pediatric-hospitalization-rates-hit-record-high

The latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicate that there have been at least 32 million cases of influenza in the 2019-20 US flu season.
 

[BowhunterNJ]

11 minutes ago, nickmarch said:

US Flu Cases Reach 32 Million, Pediatric Hospitalization Rates Hit Record High

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/us-flu-cases-reach-32-million-pediatric-hospitalization-rates-hit-record-high

The latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicate that there have been at least 32 million cases of influenza in the 2019-20 US flu season.
 

From the article:

Quote

So far, there have been 310,000 flu-related hospitalizations and 18,000 associated deaths this season.

So hospitalizations as the denominator, you have a 5.81% mortality rate of hospitalized patientds.

Have any CV stats on hospitalizations? 

[nickmarch]

[nickmarch]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/younger-adults-are-large-percentage-coronavirus-hospitalizations-united-states-according-new-cdc-data/

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by nickmarch

[newjerseyhunter]

Well you know what they say, there are 3 types of lies. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Do stats matter? Somewhat but ask anyone working in a NYC area hospital whether the stats are giving us a clear picture of what is going on. Ask any of those workers if they have ever seen anything like this before related to the seasonal flu.

 

 

[nickmarch]

5 minutes ago, newjerseyhunter said:

Well you know what they say, there are 3 types of lies. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Do stats matter? Somewhat but ask anyone working in a NYC area hospital whether the stats are giving us a clear picture of what is going on. Ask any of those workers if they have ever seen anything like this before related to the seasonal flu.

 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by nickmarch

[deadonshot2]

10 minutes ago, newjerseyhunter said:

Well you know what they say, there are 3 types of lies. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Do stats matter? Somewhat but ask anyone working in a NYC area hospital whether the stats are giving us a clear picture of what is going on. Ask any of those workers if they have ever seen anything like this before related to the seasonal flu.

 

 

The nurses I have talked to that usually have smiles and talkative are all stone faced now and look like they have been beaten down. And this is just getting serious around here. I see the look of concern in my staff's faces everyday also. Not much fun at work these days. Very stressful indeed. The people that are too selfish to follow stay at home orders and just wanting be out in public just add to the stress.  

[BowhunterNJ]

A lot has changed since March 16th...

[nickmarch]

They shut down many businesses and said to do some basic things that to many aren't doing.  People from NJ and NY the two worse places for infections are fleeing instead of locking themself down.  They are spreading it all over.  

Here in Cape May County confirmed covid cases trippled in a day mainly from others fleeing infested locations. They had it and brought it here and a whole lot of other places. Had they locked themself down they would still have it but they wouldnt have brought it here and to other places.

Edited April 1, 2020 by nickmarch

[BowhunterNJ]

No surprise...

 

China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

[gaberdeen]

As a RN on the frontline I can tell you that we opened an auxiliary ICU in our post anesthesia recovery room. Our regular icu is filled to the brim with covid vented pt’s. This is a small hospital I can only imagine what the larger hospitals are facing.

[nickmarch]

It's being said that a loss of your sense of smell and taste is an early sign that you have covid.  

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+sense+of+smell&oq=covid+sense+of+smell&aqs=chrome..69i57.7974j0j7&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8