COVID-19 Discussion and Updates

[deadonshot2]

7 minutes ago, newjerseyhunter said:

Come on man, read the entire sentence. I didn't say the gov't "can't", I said, "the Feds cannot coordinate or take care of all the states without the leadership of those states."

Are you living in a fantasy world?? When was the last time you saw a politician own a mistake? lol

And those states including republican governors are all saying that they are competing against each other for same materials. If the federal government took the lead (now that would be a shocking development) and used the defense act we would not have the shortages we see now. I know we can not manufacture things over night but PPE should easier than ventilators. So while you are placing blame on the states leadership I think you have it totally backwards. It is the lack of leadership from the WH that has us where we are today. There are governors on both sides of the aisle doing great things for their states despite chaos trump is trying to cause. 

So what is this supply task force for? Make sure grocery stores have enough toilet paper? 

[newjerseyhunter]

6 minutes ago, deadonshot2 said:

And those states including republican governors are all saying that they are competing against each other for same materials. If the federal government took the lead (now that would be a shocking development) and used the defense act we would not have the shortages we see now. I know we can not manufacture things over night but PPE should easier than ventilators. So while you are placing blame on the states leadership I think you have it totally backwards. It is the lack of leadership from the WH that has us where we are today. There are governors on both sides of the aisle doing great things for their states despite chaos trump is trying to cause. 

So what is this supply task force for? Make sure grocery stores have enough toilet paper? 

Obviously not, my local spots are still out! lol

I'm not sure why you think Trump is trying to sow chaos, that makes no sense. I'm not placing blame, you were placing blame. I was simply saying it has to be a joint effort and you have to move supplies to the areas that need them from the areas that have them. 

[deadonshot2]

13 minutes ago, newjerseyhunter said:

Obviously not, my local spots are still out! lol

I'm not sure why you think Trump is trying to sow chaos, that makes no sense. I'm not placing blame, you were placing blame. I was simply saying it has to be a joint effort and you have to move supplies to the areas that need them from the areas that have them. 

Exactly and that is what supposedly this supply task force is for- to move supplies. But the states are competing against each other which is not the way it should be if we had leadership coordinating a national effort. And why we still do not have a single company directed by the defense act to produce ppe is astounding. 

As far as why do I think trump is sowing chaos? Let's look at recent days. I have "total authority". Next day- I am leaving it up to the states to decide when to open their economies (because he even got push back from republicans about the statement the day before). Then following day he tweets for people in three dem states to "liberate" their state. No mention of Ohio (republican gov) who was also having protests. People hear trump say this dem bs and they believe every word and can't see the reality. It is nothing more than trump feeding the base and not handling a national health crisis.  If he made a decision and it turned out to be the wrong decision- no problem, lets fix it and move on. But to make the decision to do nothing and then blame governors is totally wrong.

[BHC]

they are saying a small % of people develop a rash from Covid19 saw it on the news

 

[BCsaw]

Understand Covid-19 as the Scientists and Doctors learn more.
Pray that you're never on a ventilator.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

[Swamp_Yankee]

2018-2019 Flu Season Deaths (bottom right number):

So that's deaths spread over nearly at least six months if not more with life proceeding as normal-no social distancing, but of course with many people getting flu shots.  Then we have today's numbers:

This is over the last two months with basically the entire country shut down.  Serious question to the doubters at this point-do you think the death count would be the same if we hadn't shut anything down?  Why or why not?

[dlist777]

12 minutes ago, Swamp_Yankee said:

2018-2019 Flu Season Deaths (bottom right number):

So that's deaths spread over nearly at least six months if not more with life proceeding as normal-no social distancing, but of course with many people getting flu shots.  Then we have today's numbers:

This is over the last two months with basically the entire country shut down.  Serious question to the doubters at this point-do you think the death count would be the same if we hadn't shut anything down?  Why or why not?

I don't know if you'd consider me a doubter, but here goes....

The shutdown has helped / is helping because it's stopping us for all getting sick at once.  However, ultimately, the same number are going to get infected.  After a period of time, the shutdown goes from being helpful to harmful.  We're nearing that point in some places and have passed that point in others.  We need herd immunity to develop to ultimately reduce infections over the long term.

 The reason a continued shut down is harmful is because (a) the economic damage and (b) it just lengthens the period of time before herd  immunity develops through exposure.  We can't stay locked down until a vaccine is developed because it could take years.  The average vaccine takes 10 years to develop.  It could happen in 18 months as some hope, but that would be a world record and we can't bank on that.  

A phased re-opening is the way to go and we can't wait much longer.    

 

[Swamp_Yankee]

16 minutes ago, dlist777 said:

I don't know if you'd consider me a doubter, but here goes....

The shutdown has helped / is helping because it's stopping us for all getting sick at once.  However, ultimately, the same number are going to get infected.  After a period of time, the shutdown goes from being helpful to harmful.  We're nearing that point in some places and have passed that point in others.  We need herd immunity to develop to ultimately reduce infections over the long term.

 The reason a continued shut down is harmful is because (a) the economic damage and (b) it just lengthens the period of time before herd  immunity develops through exposure.  We can't stay locked down until a vaccine is developed because it could take years.  The average vaccine takes 10 years to develop.  It could happen in 18 months as some hope, but that would be a world record and we can't bank on that.  

A phased re-opening is the way to go and we can't wait much longer.    

No offense, but you're not who I was looking to hear from   All of that makes perfect sense to me and we should be working toward a phased re-opening right now.  I'm talking about the "This-is-no-worse than-the-flu" crowd.  

[newjerseyhunter]

1 hour ago, Swamp_Yankee said:

Serious question to the doubters at this point-do you think the death count would be the same if we hadn't shut anything down?  Why or why not?

 

1 hour ago, dlist777 said:

The shutdown has helped / is helping because it's stopping us for all getting sick at once.  However, ultimately, the same number are going to get infected.  After a period of time, the shutdown goes from being helpful to harmful.  We're nearing that point in some places and have passed that point in others.  We need herd immunity to develop to ultimately reduce infections over the long term.

The only way to answer this is to figure out how many of the people who go on respirators survive. Also, how many people getting critical care in the hospital don't have to go on vents because of that critical care? The reason I say this is because dlist is correct, eventually the same number of people get sick regardless barring a vaccine or seasonal driven die off. So if people who get vented die anyway then whether the hospitals are overwhelmed might not make as huge a difference as we think. Unfortunately, I don't think we could ever accurately predict those numbers which is why they erred on the side of caution? 

[deadonshot2]

6 hours ago, newjerseyhunter said:

 

The only way to answer this is to figure out how many of the people who go on respirators survive. Also, how many people getting critical care in the hospital don't have to go on vents because of that critical care? The reason I say this is because dlist is correct, eventually the same number of people get sick regardless barring a vaccine or seasonal driven die off. So if people who get vented die anyway then whether the hospitals are overwhelmed might not make as huge a difference as we think. Unfortunately, I don't think we could ever accurately predict those numbers which is why they erred on the side of caution? 

But it would make a difference. If you had 10 people on vents that were going to die no matter what- but you have 40 people needing vents and you only have 10 to use-- well some people who could have been saved will ultimately die because they did not have a vent for them. Or even the critical care they needed. Only so many nurse and doctors. 

If you normally have one nurse for 1-2 ICU patients and now that same nurse has to take care of 4-5 ICU patients because of how many people are sick at one time- what type of care do you think you are receiving? Overloading the system will lead to people dying who other wise would have survived. 

[Lunatic]

This is not the first time and not the last time. Someone above said we survived Spanish Influenza without this social isolation thing

Edited April 20, 2020 by Lunatic

[Swamp_Yankee]

29 minutes ago, Lunatic said:

This is not the first time and not the last time. Someone above said we survived Spanish Influenza without this social isolation thing

And that was well before how disease transmission was really understood.  Scientists and doctors then didn't know anything about viruses but they did know that people in close proximity to each other had the potential to spread disease.  An amateur historian on the local Facebook page for Washington (Warren County) recently dug up a letter from the Mayor at the time back in 1910 that actually directed local ministers to cancel church services, for school to be cancelled, etc...because an outbreak of smallpox had been detected in Hackettstown and was making its way through the county.  

[Lunatic]

33 minutes ago, Swamp_Yankee said:

And that was well before how disease transmission was really understood.  Scientists and doctors then didn't know anything about viruses but they did know that people in close proximity to each other had the potential to spread disease.  An amateur historian on the local Facebook page for Washington (Warren County) recently dug up a letter from the Mayor at the time back in 1910 that actually directed local ministers to cancel church services, for school to be cancelled, etc...because an outbreak of smallpox had been detected in Hackettstown and was making its way through the county.  

Is over

[Farmshine]

Is over

Pfff , lucky guess


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[hunterbob1]

On 4/18/2020 at 7:09 PM, BHC said:

they are saying a small % of people develop a rash from Covid19 saw it on the news

 

Shortwave, you have brand-radio

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGTN_(TV_channel)