Available Turkey Permits

[smittty]

6 minutes ago, vdep217 said:

Biology 101 predators and prey will always find a balance

👌 

[mazzgolf]

I just did a quick look at the numbers - quota of permits per zone per period, and harvest data.

First, no one is killing 29 birds. Based on the zones where all the permits sold out (so all permits in the quota did not go unused, all were bought by hunters) and where most of the birds are harvested, the harvest rate is between 1-in-10 and 1-in-5 (for every 10 permits sold in these zones, between 1 and 2 birds are harvested). You can legally only shoot one bird a day. So, even if a hunter (ever the optimist this hunter is) paid for a permit for every day for each period A, B, C, and E in one of those zones, he only shot AT MOST one bird a period (on average), thus 4 birds. For D week, add another  1 or AT MOST 2.

Now, nobody does that (buys all those permits). But IF this super-turkey-hunter did, that's what the averages say would be his harvest total - 5 or 6 birds AT MOST (and some of these zones even those averages would be lower - say, 4 for the super-turkey-hunter).

Realistically, my guess is the average total harvest per hunter in NJ is most likely less than 1. Figure most hunters only buy 1 or 2 permits, and success rates per permit are between 10%-20%. So that's why I think average harvest per hunter is probably under 1. I would bet money the average harvest per NJ hunter is not 2 - and that is even when including hunters here in the south.

 

[hammer4reel]

6 minutes ago, mazzgolf said:

I just did a quick look at the numbers - quota of permits per zone per period, and harvest data.

First, no one is killing 29 birds. Based on the zones where all the permits sold out (so all permits in the quota did not go unused, all were bought by hunters) and where most of the birds are harvested, the harvest rate is between 1-in-10 and 1-in-5 (for every 10 permits sold in these zones, between 1 and 2 birds are harvested). You can legally only shoot one bird a day. So, even if a hunter (ever the optimist this hunter is) paid for a permit for every day for each period A, B, C, and E in one of those zones, he only shot AT MOST one bird a period (on average), thus 4 birds. For D week, add another  1 or AT MOST 2.

Now, nobody does that (buys all those permits). But IF this super-turkey-hunter did, that's what the averages say would be his harvest total - 5 or 6 birds AT MOST (and some of these zones even those averages would be lower - say, 4 for the super-turkey-hunter).

Realistically, my guess is the average total harvest per hunter in NJ is most likely less than 1. Figure most hunters only buy 1 or 2 permits, and success rates per permit are between 10%-20%. So that's why I think average harvest per hunter is probably under 1. I would bet money the average harvest per NJ hunter is not 2 - and that is even when including hunters here in the south.

 

Good hunters having access , and time to hunt can shoot way more birds than your average comes out to .

With the time and right properties to hunt 3 birds a week isn’t a long shot .

[mazzgolf]

Just now, hammer4reel said:

Good hunters having access , and time to hunt can shoot way more birds than your average comes out to .

With the time and right properties to hunt 3 birds a week isn’t a long shot .

Sure. But how many are actually in that position of the super-turkey-hunter? Who has access to such property AND actually buys all those permits AND buys them for multiple periods AND successfully shoots all those birds? Maybe a handful of people (??).

My point is, that is not the cause of any statewide (or even zone-wide) population decline.

 

[hammer4reel]

Just now, mazzgolf said:

My point is, that is not the cause of any statewide (or even zone-wide) population decline.

 

That’s about the only part that’s accurate .

 

more guys shoot ALOT of turkeys than what you see posted on one message board .

those guys aren’t shooting all their birds on one piece of property .

many only shoot 1 bird on each farm they hunt .

 

predators and wet springs is what does turkeys in fast .

all the extended baiting for deer here have raccoons at an all time high in most places 

[Fred Flintstone]

2 hours ago, hendryhill said:

I’m so sick of the permit system it’s not even funny. New Jersey needs to do exactly what Tennessee just a did.

Your all-around hunting license gives you 2 turkeys for the spring season, one of them can be a Jake and then you’re done.

I’m tired of getting raped and having properties in different zones and having to pay additional costs just to check those spots

I Agree. 

[archer36]

Well to get back to the OP, if there are thousands of unpurchased permits, how is the State fleecing us? I am just pissed that they try. 

Is it possible that the zones that have hundreds of permits available have good turkey populations but not lots of Turkey hunters? 

Doesn't make sense to me at all. Offer thousands of permits that no one buys. 

Edited May 2, 2023 by archer36

[Fred Flintstone]

1 hour ago, deerstalker420 said:

They don’t manage turkeys in this State. They manage how much money they can squeeze out of you. Christ sakes the limit is 29 birds for the season. Every other State is lowering their limits. Hell PA had four times the number of birds we have and can only shoot two. Don’t get me started on the fact we can’t use a .410 in Jersey because Fish and Game to stubborn to keep up with the times.  Just like deer managed just for money

Agree- A few years back,I wrote that the Max Spring Limit should be 3 to 5 Gobblers. Still a Tremendous  number.  I am leaning more towards 3. 

[Fred Flintstone]

24 minutes ago, hammer4reel said:

Good hunters having access , and time to hunt can shoot way more birds than your average comes out to .

With the time and right properties to hunt 3 birds a week isn’t a long shot .

Exactly.

[archer36]

5 minutes ago, Fred Flintstone said:

Agree- A few years back,I wrote that the Max Spring Limit should be 3 to 5 Gobblers. Still a Tremendous  number.  I am leaning more towards 3. 

I don't have a problem with guys shooting more turkeys if the permits are available and the turkeys are abundant. But it looks like the amount of permits has nothing to do with amount of birds. It's all upside down. Thousands of unpurchased permits. What's the difference if 20 percent of guys shoot 80  percent of birds because no one else wants to? 

[fab]

In the 90s it was hard to get permits.  We use to get 2 per guy during lottery and then get 1 or 2  over counter at hatchery, so 3 of us would end up with with 10 to 13 tags.  Zones 2 3 4 5 6 and 7.  Some combo of that.  And was over a 6 week season not 5 like now.  We always filed every tag  without issue.  We had lots of farms.  I did most of the calling with the shooter 15 to 45 yds in front 

If we mess up one spot go to another     

I hunted nj as i stated before from 89 to 2003 then not again till 2020.  What a shock it was at the amt of birds left in 2020.  

[SPEARFISH]

10% of the hunters shoot 90% of the birds, just like fishing. Not actual numbers of course.

[SPEARFISH]

I'll be up in Zone 1 Saturday.  Hopefully there's a bird there.  

[hunterbob1]

14 minutes ago, SPEARFISH said:

I'll be up in Zone 1 Saturday.  Hopefully there's a bird there.  

Layton behind Three Bridges

[SPEARFISH]

3 hours ago, hunterbob1 said:

Layton behind Three Bridges

No, but not that far.  I've killed birds up there, but last year I didn't.