A Better Year Next Year?

[Rusty]

They just changed the long range forecast, it's supposed to stay warm through January.

 

The woods are still full of acorns, which has decreased the number of deer killed this year and will have them in great shape for next year.

 

AND, the bear population has been, and will continue to be, reduced.

 

Will we see a rebound in the deer herd?  At least in regulation sets 0-4?

 

 

[JHbowhunter]

we can only hope.... The state and the regs have a hand in it too.....    If Gobblergetter can trap all the 'yotes around me too - will help.

[Rusty]

A little logging wouldn't hurt either.  

[Tarhunt]

I have to convince the landowner to let me take out some more does. I tried to talk to him about it but, he's not interested at all. I don't know what to do about it.

[BowhunterNJ]

Can you get on an adjacent piece to hunt? Lol

[rgw]

you should be happy you have that many doe. you kill them today there will be none for tomorrow. just look at everyone else on here complaining about the lack of deer

[Matty]

Tarhunt, serious question because it's hard for me to tell from that pic....how many are probably adult does and are any of them buttons?

 

Just taking one adult doe there looks like it might be a good start. Kind of looks like mostly younger deer to me, but it's hard to tell since it's a stampede. lol

 

Maybe see if he'll let you take a young doe, less impact on the herd, but still helps a little bit.

 

I think next year could be a lot better, even just antler growth wise. Less stress, higher body weights going into Spring, probably have a lot of fawns bred this year too. Should help.

[tcook8296]

I couldn't help thinking about this myself. The weather has definitely been very warm. My grass is still green at my house. Seems there is still plenty of food. Tarhunt, I would be happy to see plenty of does around. If those does were to get caught up on the wrong drive, every one of them could be gone tomorrow. I have been baiting heavy in combination with late season food plots and leaving the property quiet to keep the deer on my property as much as possible until the season is over. I have 2 bucks Im after, but they are completely nocturnal after 6 day. The only way Im going to kill one of these bucks is if we get a nice long cold snap with possibly a nice snow covering. Until then I stay out of the woods, watch the cameras and let the deer be. On shot gun days, I make sure to make a presence known , patrol the property looking for trespassers. I have friends that are hunting bucks that are nocturnal every minute they can and it just doesn't make sense to me. This weather is just one factor for deer survival rate for next year. The biggest factor though is still hunting. With the warm weather, more guys will be out hunting which means driving. I like cold. It keeps the week end warriors home. I have heard from a few guys in NJ and read some reports on the qdma website of deer in the Midwest shedding antlers very early this year. This is when your bucks start getting harvested as does. I myself have not seen any shed bucks as of yet. Its going to take guys to lay off the trigger more than the weather here in NJ. If you have deer, hunt your properties smart and keep them around, but if you are trampling your properties late season, the deer wont tolerate and you will be pushing them off to the neighbors who may just flatten those deer as they come across the line. Guys be me have been pressuring the deer hard, I have a lot of does showing up. My property will be the doe factory in the neighborhood. When I first got the farm, very little if any deer lived on the farm, I can truthfully say I have resident does that live on the farm now. It definitely does not hurt to have does around in November because the bucks will show. Having some younger does around in December is a plus also when that 2nd rut kicks in. Im still seeing bucks chasing does around.

Don't go by the date, this was last night

Edited December 21, 2015 by tcook8296

[Tarhunt]

Tarhunt, serious question because it's hard for me to tell from that pic....how many are probably adult does and are any of them buttons?

 

Just taking one adult doe there looks like it might be a good start. Kind of looks like mostly younger deer to me, but it's hard to tell since it's a stampede. lol

 

Maybe see if he'll let you take a young doe, less impact on the herd, but still helps a little bit.

 

I think next year could be a lot better, even just antler growth wise. Less stress, higher body weights going into Spring, probably have a lot of fawns bred this year too. Should help.

There seems to be more adult does than buttons. This is only one group that sticks together. There is a herd of 20 that has some really large does. Some I know are at least four to five years old. And then, there's another group of about 7 that's mostly smaller bucks. Seems pretty lopsided by me. The farmer leases out most of his land to another farmer for growing crops so, he's not concerned about the deer at all.

[Bucksnbows]

They just changed the long range forecast, it's supposed to stay warm through January.

 

The woods are still full of acorns, which has decreased the number of deer killed this year and will have them in great shape for next year.

 

AND, the bear population has been, and will continue to be, reduced.

 

Will we see a rebound in the deer herd?  At least in regulation sets 0-4?

 

In a word, yes.  But not a full rebound in a single year.  Yet it's a start.  Bears aren't much concern other than some getting newborn fawns in spring.  Coyote predation in deep snows is a much bigger concern, and so far that doesn't look like it will happen this winter.  Add things like early budding of trees and shrubs - some of which is happening now - plus green lawns and ornamental shrubs all contributing additional food sources on top of all the acorns still on the ground, and deer should be eating very well this winter.  That will help pregnant does during gestation and give them good energy for lactating once their fawns are born in a few months.      

[IthacaDS3]

In a word, yes.  But not a full rebound in a single year.  Yet it's a start.  Bears aren't much concern other than some getting newborn fawns in spring.  Coyote predation in deep snows is a much bigger concern, and so far that doesn't look like it will happen this winter.  Add things like early budding of trees and shrubs - some of which is happening now - plus green lawns and ornamental shrubs all contributing additional food sources on top of all the acorns still on the ground, and deer should be eating very well this winter.  That will help pregnant does during gestation and give them good energy for lactating once their fawns are born in a few months.      

I'm relatively new to hunting and have been curious about the same thing.  I haven't had to search online very hard to see reports about past deer harvests being negatively related to large mast crops.  But I haven't read anything about what impact this has on the following year's deer harvest.  Could we see a bounce in next year's harvest?  We have relatively well fed deer that are moving around less which means less are getting shot and hit by cars.  This also means more does were around to get bread in November, and with healthy mast and warm weather, they should be well fed during gestation, which I'd think would mean higher recruitment next spring. 

 

 

 

Of course, I think our state's bag limits need some attention, but that's a separate discussion.

 

[Bucksnbows]

I'm relatively new to hunting and have been curious about the same thing.  I haven't had to search online very hard to see reports about past deer harvests being negatively related to large mast crops.  But I haven't read anything about what impact this has on the following year's deer harvest.  Could we see a bounce in next year's harvest?  We have relatively well fed deer that are moving around less which means less are getting shot and hit by cars.  This also means more does were around to get bread in November, and with healthy mast and warm weather, they should be well fed during gestation, which I'd think would mean higher recruitment next spring. 

 

 

 

Of course, I think our state's bag limits need some attention, but that's a separate discussion.

 

You have to add the deep snow and cold weather with the snow being a much greater impact than temps the last two winters.  Coyotes were able to run down deer in deep snows because they don't plunge through it like the deer do.  But Mother Nature has an amazing ability to heal herself.  If we have a few mild winters, their numbers very well may drop with a lack of food while deer rebound.  Time will tell, but we agree that hunter harvest needs to be factored into any equation with modifications being needed.

 

I have been wanting to formerly have my Sparta Mountain Rod & Gun Club become a Sussex County member of the Federation so that we have a formal say when it comes to suggesting changes to deer (and other fish and game) management.  I myself haven't had much time, but I need to recruit one or two of my crew to attend meetings once in a while so that we have that important voice.   

[Rusty]

  Bears aren't much concern other than some getting newborn fawns in spring.

 

 Coyote predation in deep snows is a much bigger concern.

 

I agree that coyotes can be a real problem, especially these past 3 winters where we have had several weeks of deep snow with a hard crust on top.  The coyotes had easy pickings.

 

But the bears are a bigger problem with deer numbers than many people think according to this Penn State study.

 

http://news.psu.edu/story/186685/2001/12/17/penn-state-study-shows-bears-are-major-predators-fawns

[Bucksnbows]

I agree that coyotes can be a real problem, especially these past 3 winters where we have had several weeks of deep snow with a hard crust on top.  The coyotes had easy pickings.

 

But the bears are a bigger problem with deer numbers than many people think according to this Penn State study.

 

http://news.psu.edu/story/186685/2001/12/17/penn-state-study-shows-bears-are-major-predators-fawns

 

This jumped out at me from the study:

 

"We didn't really expect to find that Pennsylvania black bears are the efficient predators of fawns that they are," he says. "It is widely known that the state's large population of coyotes prey on fawns, but it now looks like bears kill as many, possibly more."

[Rusty]

This jumped out at me from the study:

 

"We didn't really expect to find that Pennsylvania black bears are the efficient predators of fawns that they are," he says. "It is widely known that the state's large population of coyotes prey on fawns, but it now looks like bears kill as many, possibly more."

 

Yes, I was surprised by that too.