Long Range Weather Forecasts

[Rusty]

I'm taking some students hiking this Saturday to see the habitat work that F&W is doing on our WMAs.  I've been watching the forecast for the past 2 weeks and it has changed every single day.  It's been as high as 50 and as low as the low 20s.  It's called for everything from bright sunshine to heavy rain.  Yesterday it was predicting 40 and cloudy and now today they are calling for snow. 

[Rusty]

By the way, don't tell LittleM about the snow.  He said he would only come if it was sunny and in the 40s. 

[Haskell_Hunter]

What location do you want the forecast for?

 

Rule of thumb, 72 hours is too long for an accurate prediction. 48 hours is the earliest accurate predictions. Reasonable predictions start at 36 hours, but storms are too dynamic to be 100% accurate.

 

I never start following storm systems until max 3 days in advance.

 

Here are the links I use to forecast Haskell weather.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.0284&lon=-74.296&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

 

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw:07420.1.99999

 

But for the real deal, this is what you want to read. It's the technical forecast discussion at the NOAA. Unlike the media, they won't commit to forecasts until they are certain of them. So check back to the technical discussion every 4-6 hours. They have a link on the page that highlights what changed between discussions. Very handy.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

If you spend a lot of time outdoors, and obviously everyone here does, I cannot emphasize enough the value and importance of learning how to read the technical forecast discussion. You'll have an excellent idea what the weather is going to be like before you head out. It is infinitely more informative than any other weather source.

 

Good luck this weekend!

[Bucksnbows]

"Long range" in weather forecasting is about 2 hours out and then I give most weathermen a 50-50 shot of getting close.  

 

Wish I could join you guys, but I forgot that the Freshwater Fisheries annual meeting is Saturday in Hackettstown and Trout Unlimited will be discussing a proposal to better protect wild brook and brown trout in light of the Pequest hatchery only raising rainbow trout for the next 3 to 5 years (minimum).  Then I have to go to the Somerset Fly Fishing Show to man a booth down there.  Have fun and say hello to Sparta Mountain for me!    

[Rusty]

Wish I could join you guys, but I forgot that the Freshwater Fisheries annual meeting is Saturday in Hackettstown and Trout Unlimited will be discussing a proposal to better protect wild brook and brown trout in light of the Pequest hatchery only raising rainbow trout for the next 3 to 5 years (minimum).  Then I have to go to the Somerset Fly Fishing Show to man a booth down there.  Have fun and say hello to Sparta Mountain for me!    

That's a bummer. 

 

Now I'm sad. 

[LittleM]

Little M way ahead of you ..........................

[Rusty]

Last night they were predicting 1-2 inches of snow for Monday.  This morning they are saying we could get up to a foot of snow.  

[Haskell_Hunter]

Yeah, I've been following the second storm forecast since your original post.  They've been swinging the forecast pendulum pretty hard on this one.  I'll be checking into it over it every 4 hours today.

 

Oh, this is good, from the NOAA:  "THE INGREDIENTS ARE THEN COMING TOGETHER FOR A POSSIBLE HISTORIC NOR`EASTER..."

Edited January 25, 2015 by Haskell_Hunter

[Haskell_Hunter]

Wow, this is going to be an interesting week.  This is the forecast discussion for the South Jersey/Philly crew:

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

There are two storms in the south--one tonight that  might drop 1"-4" of snow, and then the second one Monday night into Tuesday, which may turn out to be a blizzard.  Mount Holly (the forecast center for South-Central-NW Jersey and E. PA) isn't discussing snowfall totals, but their discussion is slightly different from the Upton, NY (NE Jersey, NYC, Long Island, S, CT, SE NYS) forecast.  I tend to read them both because they forecast based on political boundaries such as state and county lines, not geographical boundaries.

 

Either way, snow, and lots of it.  It'll be a light and fluffy snow since the temperatures will be colder.  By the coast it might be wetter snow because it tends to be warmer there.

 

Fill your gas tanks today, make sure those generators work, and dust off the snowblower!  Oh, and there may be another storm Thurs through Friday.

[Haskell_Hunter]

Upgraded to a Blizzard Warning!

 

18-24 inches of snow with 45 MPH wind gusts.

 

Stock up on food, fuel, and ammo now!

[Rusty]

Upgraded to a Blizzard Warning!

 

18-24 inches of snow with 45 MPH wind gusts.

 

Stock up on food, fuel, and ammo now!

 

AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Matty]

Better get the bread and milk.

[Haskell_Hunter]

Better get the bread and milk.

 

Ironically, I went to the store and came back with break and milk.  I should survive this storm.

[LittleM]

37 dozen eggs in the fridge.  Bring it on.  Actually, my wife has to work tomorrow and she's prolly gonna get mandated to work a double and then she's not gonna be able to get home till late Tuesday.  I stocked up on 30-packs.  I should start posting like a mad-man sometime by 8:00 tomorrow night ..............

[Haskell_Hunter]

LOL, one of the first things I did today was check to make sure I had at least a case of beer on hand, all else be damned!