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not on the rug

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not on the rug last won the day on February 17 2018

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About not on the rug

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  • Birthday 04/02/1979

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    Warren County, New Jersey

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  1. Gotta trim the hedges to make the house look bigger...
  2. Not entirely true. If 99% of the task is automated, then 99% less labor is required. 1 man can jockey trucks on to the roadway, program them and send them on their way. He doesn't have to sit in the truck for the duration of the trip. Then a thousand miles away, 1 man can jockey the truck in to the yard for delivery. The technology is way further along than you believe it is. One of those trucking companies (I think Embark) has been using automated trucks for 2-3 years now in exactly the manner I've described
  3. You mean by magically entering in GPS coordinates or an address? That's exactly how all of these cars/trucks work. Your denial is essentially semantics. Even if truck yards hired 10 guys to jockey trucks to the end of the driveway and progran the GPS, that's autonomy. So...4.999 million folks will be out of work in 10 years. Not 5 mil. Sorry. Tesla and Embark have had their systems on the road for years, taking exits, changing lanes, etc. The future is here
  4. Tesla cars. Embark trucks. Waymo trucks. Volvo trucks. Daimler trucks. I'm sure there are more, but these were the first ones that came to mind
  5. We're talking about the elimination of truck drivers, taxi drivers and pretty much any other human who gets paid to drive anything, almost completely gone in the next 10 years. There are 3.5 million truck drivers alone. Now they don't have jobs. Throw in another million taxi and school bus drivers. They're next. Automated vehicles are cheaper to run (not paying a driver), far safer, and can run 24/7. Add in limo and taxi drivers for another 500-600k. There are 5 million folks out of work in the next 10 years. That's just 1 field that will be crushed by automation. I never said it wasn't an amazing complex economic question. I was initially curious if there is any merit. We're all talking about things that occur in a vacuum, one way or the other. There really is no way of knowing how it would all play out unless it gets to play out. Like we said earlier, huge roll of the dice...
  6. We've never seen automation growth at this rate. Hopefully you're right. I would prefer you to be right I agree with that 100%. I believe the assumption is that the folks losing their jobs won't be willing to turn the knob. Also, historically, job re-training programs are wildly unsuccessful If there are 6 local companies out there making the same product, where would you shop? Are you going to give your money to the guy who is charging 10-15% above market value? No. That's competition. It keeps prices down and/or slows the increase in costs.
  7. I think that's the idea. Yang eve states that VAT will increase the prices of items slightly, but argues that competition will keep things in check. Haskell Hunter disagrees. I still don't know how to feel. To put it in to perspective, would $5k matter to you that much over the life of a 5 year car loan if you and your wife had $24k a year more in your bank account ($120k more over the course of that 5 year loan term)?
  8. I am smarter than that...that's why I'm questioning all of it. I don't buy it. I don't discredit it blindly either. We're facing a problem in this country and we do need a solution. I'm not seeing too many other viable solutions out there and when Bernie wins in 2020, we'll all be fucked. Maybe a guy like Yang would be a better choice? As awful as it sounds
  9. That's what I'm talking about. Could it sustain and come to homeostasis and you're telling me it can't. I would love to hear economists chime in on this more (on Yang's plan specifically, not failed historical instances or how it worked in other parts of the world). It does feel like a gigantic roll of the dice, but I think he will sell the millenials on it for sure. Maybe not in this election cycle because a true Socialist is running and will more than likely get the nod and perhaps win the presidency. I do believe that automation is going to put millions of people out of work, and not just the burger flipper crowd. Something does need to be done to help these folks transition back to the workforce and some sort of work is going to be needed for these folks to do (besides burger flipping jobs, which won't exist anyway). 55 year old truck drivers won't go back to college to become programmers. Same goes for every other middle aged American who will face unemployment and a lack of skills in the ever-changing market. We certainly can't keep burying our heads in the sand and pretend that isn't happening. Not every president will lead like Trump and push hard for the blue collar worker.
  10. That's what I'm looking for. Yang insists that competition will keep inflation in check. More money to spend equals more opportunity for local business. Supply vs Demand 101, right? As for outright proof, no way to truly tell until it was actually implemented on a large scale. Which is pretty much true of every pie-in-the-sky idea from every politician trying to garner votes. Of course automation is a good thing. It undoubtedly cuts costs for businesses. The problem is, those businesses aren't passing that savings along to consumers. Wouldn't a VAT basically force the businesses to contribute their fair share instead of just pocketing the difference? I'm also talking about the impending automation in various other trades, not just for burger flippers.
  11. We're already subsidizing crackheads in Newark. Yang's plan on Universal Basic Income would be to give $12k to every adult in America, not just the same welfare folks in the cities. That is what where the growth would come from, and if it won't take any money out of my pocket or if it results in a net positive for middle class American citizens, then I would get behind it
  12. Damn. That's scary. It could have been a lot worse
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